Q4 2025 Quarterly Economic Survey Report

We are proud to have sponsored the Q4 2025 Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) Report, the UK's longest running and largest business sentiment survey, recently published by the Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce (TVCC). This latest edition follows the release of the national results by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), providing timely and vital insights into the economic landscape as businesses navigate weakening demand and escalating costs.  

The Q4 2025 Quarterly Economic Survey, conducted between 10 November and 8 December 2025, reflects responses from a broad cross-section of local businesses, capturing trends across key indicators including sales, employment, cash flow, investment and price pressures.  

It highlights a more challenging environment for regional businesses than in previous quarters. Although pockets of resilience remain, sustained cost pressures and lower demands have led to a noticeable easing in overall confidence. This quarter’s data also revealed that a large proportion of businesses anticipates further price increases, driven most strongly by rising labour costs rather than improved margins. 

Key findings include: 

• Sales and orders remain subdued, with a significant share of businesses reporting flat or declining UK orders and sales.  
• Workforce trends show modest growth intentions: 51% of businesses reported workforce increases over the past three months, and a similar proportion expect workforce growth in the coming months.  
• Recruitment difficulties persist, with more than half of respondents struggling to find suitable staff - particularly in skilled manual, technical, and managerial roles.  
• Capacity utilisation remains below full potential, with 49% of firms currently operating below full capacity.  
• Business confidence remains cautious - while turnover and profitability expectations show some improvement, a significant proportion of firms report flat or worsening prospects for profitability.  
• Cost pressures continue to squeeze margins, with labour costs the most widely cited pressure point, followed by raw materials and finance costs.  

Darren O’Connor, Partner at James Cowper Kreston, commented: “The Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) remains a vital barometer for the UK’s business community. This Q4 2025 edition arrives at a time of considerable challenge, as businesses navigate weakening demand, rising costs, and persistent uncertainty. Demand has softened, with many businesses reporting flat or declining orders and sales, compounded by a cautious consumer base. Rising labour, fuel, utility, and finance costs are squeezing margins and forcing difficult investment decisions, while skills shortages continue to constrain recruitment and growth. As we look ahead, with Rachel Reeve’s budget behind us, we are all hoping for greater certainty to help long-term decision-making.” 

Paul Britton, CEO of Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce, said: “The latest QES results reflect a challenging picture for Thames Valley firms amid weakening demand and rising costs. Concerns about tax rises were not fully eased by the November 26th Budget. Businesses anticipate further price increases driven by rising labour costs, while recruitment difficulties and skills shortages remain a defining constraint. Pre- and post-Budget sentiment remains cautious, and confidence into 2026 is expected to stay subdued unless demand strengthens, interest rates fall, and Government policies provide opportunities rather than obligations for business.”  

Click here to download the QES Q4 2025 report in full. 

In response to the findings, TVCC hosted a report briefing, featuring Sue Staunton, Managing Partner at James Cowper Kreston, and Stuart Morrison from the BCC, as they discussed the Q4 results with Tim Major, Senior Account Manager at the TVCC. The video provides a deeper insight into the trends revealed by the latest survey and what they mean for Thames Valley businesses heading into 2026. 

If you are unable to view the video below, please update your cookie policy preferences. Alternatively, you can watch on YouTube here.