Q2 2025 Quarterly Economic Survey Report

We are proud to have sponsored the Q2 2025 Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) Report, recently published by the Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce (TVCC). This report follows the release of the national results by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), providing invaluable insights into the economic landscape. 

The Q2 2025 Quarterly Economic Survey reveals cautious optimism across the Thames Valley business community, with 55% of firms reporting increased UK sales and 56% noting growth in domestic orders. Overseas trade remains stable, while 57% of businesses expect their workforce to remain constant in the coming months. Recruitment challenges persist, particularly for skilled manual and technical roles, with 67% of respondents attempting to hire. Despite inflationary pressures, particularly from labour and fuel costs, cashflow and investment levels show resilience, and nearly half of businesses expect turnover to improve. 

Conducted between May 12 and June 9 2025, the survey gathered valuable input from local businesses, focusing on key economic indicators to offer a clear snapshot of the region’s business climate. 

Alan Poole, Partner, commented: “The latest survey continues to show mixed emotions amongst local business leaders with a majority of businesses fairly optimistic about sales prospects both domestically and overseas, but with that optimism tempered by continued concerns around cost inflation and ability to recruit skilled workers.  

The recent increases in the National Living Wage and Employers' NIC took effect at the start of Q2 and concerns remain that further tax rises may be forthcoming in the autumn as the government continues to grapple with very tight public finances and a sluggish economy, while uncertainty over US trade policies also remains, all contributing to fragile confidence to invest in future growth. 

Nonetheless, the Thames Valley continues to perform relatively strongly with many local businesses continuing to grow, invest and develop, showing resilience and adaptability in an ever-changing and increasingly uncertain environment.” 

Paul Britton, CEO of Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce, commented: “The regional results reflect the national picture that the Autumn Budget and the tax burden for business has left a dent in business confidence. International uncertainty, and particularly the announcement of new trade tariffs by President Trump, provided additional deliberations. 

While the UK has negotiated a less impactful deal for most sectors, these announcements continue to influence the day-to-day decisions of importers and exporters looking to minimise the risk exposure and costs. The true impact of these tariffs will be realised in trade figures and confidence in the quarters to come.  

Despite the noises from Washington, businesses across our region continue to demonstrate resilience and the order books for domestic and overseas demand for business is encouraging. There was also a slight uptick in those businesses looking to increase their workforce, with 65% of respondents have attempted to recruit over the last 3 months, compared to 61% in Q1. However, the perennial challenges of finding suitable staff remain. 

Looking ahead to the Autumn Statement, we are seeking incentives to support investment, however the backdrop is challenging to fill the gap in public spending.” 

Click here to download the report in full.